GCF SAP003 · University of Bahrain
Deliverable 7 — Monitoring Plan & Cost Effectiveness Study
10-year horizon · Revenues from Year 4 · Government perspective
Parameters — ranked by influence on Net NPV
1Industry cost-sharing
40%
Share of TSE network construction carried by industry, not government.
0%90%
2Construction cost / km
100,000
Set by procurement discipline, design standardisation and tendering.
30k220k
3Future TSE tariff (2033)
0.200
0.05 BHD/m³0.60
3Annual licence income
500,000
02.0m BHD
4Discount rate
5.0%
1%12%
Lower-ranked parameters
TSE network length
100 km
25 km250 km
Maintenance / km / year
1,000
2504,000 BHD
Annual TSE consumption
1.00 Mm³
0.24.0 Mm³
Current TSE tariff (2029)
0.050
00.30 BHD/m³
Programme CAPEX (non-network)
500,000
200k1.5m BHD
R reset · S secondary · ←→ adjust
Net NPV — government perspective
−BHD 4,217,615
Does not pay for itself
Benefit–Cost Ratio 0.43 · base case −BHD 4,217,615 at BCR 0.43
−BHD 10m+BHD 10m
Government CAPEX
6,500,000
OPEX NPV
841,669
Total cost NPV
7,341,669
Revenue NPV
3,124,054
Annual OPEX
109,000
What single change would reach break-even?
82.2%industry cost-sharing required, if nothing else changes
29,706BHD per km construction cost required, if nothing else changes
Published scenario results — Deliverable 7, Table 3
Scenario
CAPEX
OPEX NPV
Revenue NPV
Net NPV
BCR
Worst case — high costs
11,005,000
1,127,285
3,354,440
−8,777,845
0.28
Base case
6,500,000
841,669
3,124,054
−4,217,615
0.43
CAPEX optimisation
4,697,500
648,626
3,124,054
−2,222,071
0.58
OPEX optimisation
6,500,000
634,727
5,948,199
−1,186,527
0.83
Balanced optimisation
4,970,000
681,443
5,804,493
+153,050
1.03
Best case — low costs, high revenue
3,195,000
490,487
7,853,942
+4,168,456
2.13
These are the published scenario results, reproduced as reported. They bundle several parameter changes at once and are shown for reference — the sliders above do not regenerate them.
Model basis: Deliverable 7, Appendix C. Costs discounted over Years 1–10; revenues over Years 4–10; annuity factor 7.7217 at 5%. Screening-level model: average TSE fee rather than a year-by-year trajectory, constant annual OPEX in real terms, no cost escalation modelled.